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  4. John L. Casti
  5. In fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both...

In fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both rare and surprising. So I would not say that any specific X-event is likely. What I would say, though, is that some X-event is not only plausible, but very likely in a time scale of a few years.

John L. Casti
Years, Events, Facts
"What If Everything Went Straight to Hell?". Interview with Austin Allen, bigthink.com.
In fact, the very nature of an X-event is that it is both rare and surprising. So I would not say that any specific X-event is likely. What I would say, though, is that some X-event is not only plausible, but very