Being called a sophisticated snake oil salesman was a low point in my personal career.
I think the sign of complacency in the stock market is when people don't worry. At the moment, everyone worries about everything. They worry about geopolitical risk, about political risk, they worry that the markets are too high. The time to really worry is when everyone thinks that markets are going up and everything is going really well.
I think the reason that the Trump economic agenda is beneficial is, he is doing the right things. He wants to see growth, he wants to see to lower taxes, he wants to see this cash pile sitting outside the US return to the US. All of these things I think will be good for the US economy, and as I've said, if the US economy grows, the global economy benefits hugely.
I think the retirement crisis globally is a major problem. I think it's especially prevalant in countries such as Japan, where immigration is an issue. I think the US is more shielded from it than most countries in the world. It has a higher birth rate than Japan, immigration is tolerated here unlike probably it is in Japan. I don't think it's as big an issue in the US as it is elsewhere in the world.
I think the economy in the US has surprised. The old adage is that if America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. If the US economy does well, the global economy will do well.
I think the issue that millennials have is that the return on asset classes such as bonds, cash, are so low now compared to the historical levels that it's very difficult for them to save enough to be able to retire comfortably. If interest rates do trend back upwards, it may be less of a problem going forward.
I think the asset management industry, especially in the US, is going through a pretty tough time. If you talk to the CEO of a US asset manager, morale would be at a low, even though stock markets are at almost record levels.
Asset management CEOs globally are looking at their business models. They're looking at costs, they're looking at making their businesses more efficient, because they're seeing revenues under pressure all over the world.
I think there are probably too many asset management companies in the world, and I think the place to be is either big or small. The area where it is probably more difficult to be is in the middle ground, where you've got that cost of regulation, you've got the cost of buying your own research, you've got all the costs of running an asset management company without the benefits of a big income producing asset.
I think there are probably too many hedge fund managers in the world, as well as active fund managers. The hedge fund industry is very efficient. We see a lot of hedge funds open and a lot close. It's very binary. You either succeed or fail in the hedge fund world. If you succeed, the amount the managers make it beyond most people's wildest dreams of wealth.
