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Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.

Daniel Kahneman
Powerful, Quality, Stories
"Kahneman and Klein on strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?". Interview with Gary Klein, bobmorris.biz. September 25, 2016.
Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.