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An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.

Daniel Kahneman
Strong, Promise, Intuition
"Strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?". Interview with Olivier Sibony and Dan Lovallo, www.mckinsey.com. March 2010.
An executive might have a very strong intuition that a given product has promise, without considering the probability that a rival is already ahead in developing the same product.