Based on my own personal experience – both as an investor in recent years and an expert witness in years past – rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.
Diversification is a surrogate - and a damn poor surrogate - for knowledge, elements of control, and priceconsciousness.
We ignore outlooks and forecasts... we're lousy at it and we admit it ... everyone else is lousy too, but most people won't admit it.
If I learn 1,000 techniques with my luck I'll go out on the street and be attacked by number 1,001.
We attracted a lot of market timers and asset allocators. I don't need those ... amateurs in my fund.
Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.
In the financial world it tends to be misleading to state, "There is no free lunch." Rather the more meaningful comment is, "Somebody has to pay for lunch."
