Just as many smart people fail in the investment business as stupid ones. Intellectually active people are particularly attracted to elegant concepts, which can have the effect of distracting them from the simpler, more fundamental truths.
The most important attribute for success in value investing is patience, patience, and more patience. The majority of investors do not possess this characteristic.
You find bargains among the unpopular things, the things that everybody hates. The key is that you must have patience.
Sooner or later, the market will do what it has to do to prove the majority wrong.
Why will someone sell you a dollar for 50 cents? Because in the short run, people are irrational on both the optimistic and pessimistic side.
Protect the downside. Worry about the margin of safety.
When a stock doubles, sell half - then what you have is a free position. Then it becomes more of an art form. When you sell depends on individual circumstances.
I think that intelligent forecasting (company revenues, earnings, etc.) should not seek to predict what will in fact happen in the future. Its purpose ought to be to illuminate the road, to point out obstacles and potential pitfalls and so assist management to tailor events and to bend them in a desired direction. Forecasting should be used as a device to put both problems and opportunities into perspective. It is a management tool, but it can never be a substitute for strategy, nor should it ever be used as the primary basis for portfolio investment decisions.
The difference between the price we pay for a stock and its liquidation value gives us a margin of safety. This kind of investing is one of the most effective ways of achieving good long term results.
I try to keep in mind Oscar Wilde's comment that "saints always have a past and sinners always have a future," so no investment should be ruled out simply on the basis of past history. We focus on liquidation analysis and liquidation analysis alone.
There is always something to do. You just need to look harder, be creative and a little flexible.
The price must be less than one half of the former high and preferably at or near its all time low.
If it is cheap enough, we don't care what it is.
The company must be paying dividends. Preferably the dividend will have been increasing and have been paid for some time.
What differentiates us from other money managers with a similar style is that we’re comfortable with new lows.
The company must be profitable. Preferably it will have increased its earnings for the past five years and there will have been no deficits over that period.
All we try to do is buy a dollar for 40 cents.
To put money into anything, anywhere, provided that the downside is measurable and acceptable and the chances of a good profit appear to be better than 50%. I will not take gambles, but it is part of my job description to be ready to take very carefully calculated risks.
The share price must be less than book value. Preferably it will be less than net working capital less long term debt.
Try to pick a fund manager who has a well-defined strategy, has been through these things before, and go invest and stay with him.
There is almost always a major blip for whatever reason and we have learnt to expect it and not to panic.
There will be losing years; but if the art of making money is not to lose it, then there should not be substantial losses.
Curiosity is the engine of civilisation
I’m lucky to have the kind of life where the differentiation between work and play is absolutely zilch. I have no idea whether I’m working or whether I’m playing.
One of the dangers about net-net investing is that if you buy a net-net that begins to lose money your net-net goes down and your capacity to be able to make a profit becomes less secure. So the trick is not necessarily to predict what the earnings are going to be but to have a clear conviction that the company isn't going bust and that your margin of safety will remain intact over time.
