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If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.

Daniel Kahneman
Simple, Reality, People
"Kahneman and Klein on strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?". Interview with Gary Klein, bobmorris.biz. September 25, 2016.
If people can construct a simple and coherent story, they will feel confident regardless of how well grounded it is in reality.